{"id":2880,"date":"2020-05-15T15:08:56","date_gmt":"2020-05-15T21:08:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/publicsquaremag.org\/?p=2880"},"modified":"2023-08-08T21:20:21","modified_gmt":"2023-08-09T03:20:21","slug":"discerning-true-from-false-conspiracy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/publicsquaremag.org\/health\/discerning-true-from-false-conspiracy\/","title":{"rendered":"Discerning True from False Conspiracy"},"content":{"rendered":"
\u201cDo not call conspiracy everything these people regard as conspiracy. Do not fear what they fear; do not live in dread.\u201d \u2014Isaiah 8:12<\/a>\n<\/div>\n

In recent days, we\u2019ve seen two parallel trends taking place in American discourse\u2014both troubling in their own ways: First, a growing pattern of intense suspicion and dark foreboding about what\u2019s happening right now (pandemic and economic-wise) in our country and around the world. Second, an increasing tendency to label anyone <\/span>raising serious questions or strong concerns about our response<\/span><\/a> to what\u2019s taking place as a \u201cconspiracy theorist.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In the political lexicon of our day, \u201cconspiracist\u201d takes its place next to \u201cfanatic\u201d and \u201cextremist\u201d as largely pejorative words that function to discredit anyone who happens to get labeled\u2014standing in for \u201ccrazy\u201d or \u201ccrackpot\u201d or \u201ccookoo\u201d or \u201cso ridiculous that it\u2019s better to just ignore.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Perhaps we could consider a more difficult question: how exactly to best discern true from false conspiracy? <\/p><\/blockquote><\/div>\n

There\u2019s a flurry of journalism around conspiracy theorizing in recent years \u2013 almost all of which paint such commentary as\u00a0 categorically silly, and\/or dangerous, with titles such as \u201cThe Coronavirus Conspiracy Boom<\/a>,” “The Normalization of Conspiracy Culture<\/a>” and “How America Lost Its Mind<\/a>.” Such articles take conspiracy commentary as a public pathology to at times giggle about, and other times to raise alarm and analyze (\u201ca rare chance<\/a> for social scientists to examine just how many Americans will adopt conspiracy theories given the right set of circumstances\u201d).<\/p>\n

It’s worth pointing out, however, that many truth-tellers\u2014prophetic or otherwise\u2014have been written off with similar epithets over human history, largely because they were speaking about things people <\/span>couldn\u2019t see. <\/span><\/i>And central to the narrative of the Book of Mormon itself is the influence of what are variously called \u201c<\/span>secret combinations<\/span><\/a>\u201d and their \u201c<\/span>secret works of darkness<\/span><\/a>\u201d in the ultimate downfall of these ancient people(s).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If similar \u201csecret combinations\u201d exist in our day, and if they are a threat to our nation\u2014as the prophet Mormon himself warned\u2014they would be, by definition, <\/span>not <\/span><\/i>operating in the public eye.\u00a0 So against the prevailing tendency to write off any strong critique of existing events or systems as silly \u201cconspiracy,\u201d perhaps we could consider a more difficult question: how exactly to best discern true from false conspiracy?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In raising the question, let\u2019s first acknowledge the real danger that wildly false and darkly speculative conspiracy theorizing can engender\u2014especially if unstable individuals attempt to act on such theories, as occurred in the strange Pizzagate affair and as also plays a role in many mass shootings.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In an article following the suicide of Jeffrey Epstein (speculated by many to be a homicide), <\/span>Ross Douthat of the New York Times<\/span><\/a> suggested that in our haste to declare all such theories as reflecting mere paranoia, however, \u201cthis dismissiveness can itself become an intellectual mistake, a way to sneer at speculation while ignoring an underlying reality that deserves attention or investigation.\u201d In this case, \u201can admirable desire to reject bad or wicked theories can lead to a blindness about something important\u201d he suggests\u2014including various kinds of surreptitious activities that do, in fact, take place\u2014concealed from public view.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In this way, thoughtful public discourse around important, although ambiguous and unclear phenomena can be sideswiped by over-the-top rhetoric that discourages people from engaging, while generating knee-jerk rejection of any further conversation. Thus, the awful truth about sex trafficking in America morphs into<\/a> Tom Hanks, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton holding sex-slave children hostage underneath Central Park or ruminations over “satanic pedophiles controlling<\/a> the \u201cdeep state.\u201d Likewise, thoughtful questions about COVID-19 policy morph into insinuations that health officials<\/a> are \u201cdeep-state operatives and might not even be health experts<\/a>” or that \u201call of the pandemics<\/a> and epidemics are perpetrated fraud to control, to drive our healthcare system.\u201d<\/p>\n

Such rhetoric can generate distrust of anyone <\/em>raising questions \u2013 even legitimate ones. Douthat goes on to highlight conspiracy tales around government investigations into UFO\u2019s, Russian hacking attempts on the U.S. and the healthcare system\u2019s relationship with pharmaceutical companies\u2014in each case, attempting to parse out the exaggerated, dark version of reality from what appears to be factual and yet largely concealed from the public (e.g., yes, the U.S. military <\/span>has <\/span><\/i>conducted secret studies<\/span><\/a> of reported unidentified-flying-objects that continue defying simple explanation).\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In most cases, it doesn\u2019t seem so easy to discern the difference. That doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s impossible, though. In the case of health care, for instance, it\u2019s common to hear dark rhetoric in some quarters about the whole system being \u201cdesigned\u201d to keep people sick\u2014with diagnostic labels created strategically, consciously, and primarily to sell drugs, and virtually everyone (from doctors to pharma reps) in on the ploy . . . yes, with Darth Vader at the top.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

After acknowledging the need to push back on such rhetoric, however, Douthat goes on to point out the other part of the picture: \u201cIf you aren\u2019t somewhat paranoid about how often corporations cover up the dangers of their products, and somewhat paranoid about how drug companies in particular influence the medical consensus and encourage overprescription\u2014 well, then I have an opioid crisis you might be interested in reading about.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Christians in recent decades have been wont to tell similarly dark stories about \u201cthe media\u201d as an entity actively and consciously conspiring to tear down Christian tradition and values. Although there can be no doubt about the iconoclastic and nihilistic motives of some producers, directors and actors, such rhetoric overlooks cost incentives of the industry as a whole that profoundly shape so much of what happens. So, in other words, media systems that over-emphasize violence, conflict and sexuality may often do so because they\u2019re chasing the Almighty Dollar by doing whatever it takes to catch people\u2019s attention far more than intentionally seeking the overthrow of all goodness in the world.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That there <\/span>is <\/span><\/i>a being who consciously, actively seeks to overthrow all goodness in the world\u2014the <\/span>adversary known as \u201cLucifer\u201d<\/span><\/a>\u2014is undoubtedly a vital part of what sets apart Christians from the many who write off any speculation about diabolical schemes as ridiculous. The devil is <\/span>not <\/span><\/i>just a funny cartoon or Halloween costume for believers\u2014but one who, <\/span>as the ancient apostle Peter wrote<\/span><\/a>, is \u201cprowling around like a roaring lion, looking for anyone he can devour\u201d (CSB).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And he doesn\u2019t act alone. As the <\/span>Bible itself hints in John\u2019s final prophesy<\/span><\/a>, Latter-day Saints believe that a third of the host of heaven followed Lucifer in rebelling against the <\/span>Father\u2019s plan of happiness<\/span><\/a> before we came here to this earth. Those spirits work to influence human agents who\u2014yes\u2014can subject themselves to evil influence.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Thus, temptation and sin in a thousand varieties\u2014including the most horrific of acts perpetrated by one human being on another.\u00a0 In witnessing some of what human beings have been willing to do to each other\u2014especially to the most vulnerable among them\u2014it\u2019s very difficult to satisfactorily explain that through psychological theories alone.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, in other words, Christian believers are <\/span>primed <\/span><\/i>to see evil lurking around corners\u2014and in the background.\u00a0 That\u2019s our theology and ontology and philosophy as a whole.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But\u2014and here\u2019s the crucial point\u2014that doesn\u2019t mean evil is lurking around <\/span>every <\/span><\/i>corner, and motivating <\/span>all <\/span><\/i>that we don\u2019t happen to like or agree with in the world. When all is said, and done, and \u201c<\/span>proclaimed from the housetops<\/span><\/a>,\u201d it will almost certainly leave us all surprised, as the full scope of what <\/span>actually happened <\/span><\/i>turns out to often be more complex (and sometimes maybe even simpler) than what any of us imagined, believer and nonbeliever alike.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It can be extremely difficult for any of us to tell what\u2019s happening when competing news outlets proffer fundamentally different portrayals of the \u201cfacts.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote><\/div>\n

No matter the larger truth in the end, there\u2019s something morbidly satisfying in the present about believing large groups of people are actively out to get you\u2014something that has become bread and butter to both political parties in America today.\u00a0 Rather than disagreeing over policies, it\u2019s far too easy to presume malevolence and insist the other side is <\/span>trying <\/span><\/i>to hurt America (and lying through their teeth while they\u2019re at it).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Do leaders in this nation lie too often? Unfortunately yes\u2014and on both sides.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Are they <\/span>trying <\/span><\/i>to bring down American democracy or small businesses\u2014or actively, consciously working to destroy Christianity?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s precisely the story that many people live with as reality\u2014waking up to consume news that confirms it, and lying down at night with more news that does the same.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In fairness, it can be extremely difficult for any of us to tell what\u2019s happening when competing news outlets proffer fundamentally different portrayals of the \u201cfacts\u201d at hand. <\/span>A 2019 report<\/span><\/a> found that between 1987 and 2017 news media saw, \u201c a shift from a more academic, straightforward, event-based reporting to reporting based on personal perspective.\u201d This \u201cpersonal perspective\u201d makes it harder to trust the news. When in the wake of a school shooting, the news media focuses almost exclusively on guns,\u00a0 the rhetoric is perhaps partly responsible for conspiracies that insist school shootings are \u201corchestrated\u201d by shadowy actors trying to take away second amendment rights.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And counterintuitively, when misinformation is removed from public platforms, the censorship itself can take on a life of its own, feeding the popularity of the material, and becoming exhibit A for those pointing to widespread conspiracy in the matter. There appears to be no shortcuts in the difficult work of discernment and persuasion.<\/span><\/p>\n

When public discourse is shut down or imbalanced like this, the larger, more complex truths can easily get lost\u2014for instance, how school shootings can emerge from the sad outcome of a configuration of factors (not just one) and which no human agents are consciously blending together at all.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Given the difficulties of seeing this larger picture (and recognizing truth amidst deeply contested narratives), it\u2019s worth asking: Are there ways to help people\u2014all of us\u2014and know what\u2019s <\/span>actually true?\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Scripture speaks of the \u201c<\/span>discerning of spirits<\/span><\/a>\u201d as a spiritual gift bestowed on some by the Holy Spirit. <\/span>Elder David Bednar has taught this gift<\/span><\/a> can help us (1) \u201cdetect hidden error and evil in others\u201d; (2) \u201cdetect hidden errors and evil in ourselves\u201d; (3) \u201cfind and bring forth the good that may be concealed in others\u201d; and (4) \u201cfind and bring forth the good that may be concealed in us.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In place of condemnation, then, this calls for conversation and even <\/span>attempts to persuade<\/span><\/a> or teach each other.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote><\/div>\n

As a way to assist the development of this gift more collectively, we propose several potential criteria that might help clarify the lines and differentiate between true and exaggerated conspiracy:<\/span><\/p>\n

1. Does the particular commentary a<\/b>nnihilate public trust?\u00a0 <\/b>One potential criteria is to notice how the narrative being propounded functions – both in ourselves individually and in the lives of others who come to embrace it: Does the theory evaporate trust in anything<\/em> being said through official channels?\u00a0 Does it increase our desire to stay engaged in our communities and continue trying to improve society? Does it generate despair and extreme fear?<\/p>\n

Of course, sometimes even truth generates fear, despair and distrust.\u00a0 Yet sometimes even legitimate questions can be so framed in dark suspicion that the result is almost inescapable fear and such toxic despair and distrust that people want to disengage from public life. As University of Miami political scientist Joseph Uscinski summarized<\/a> the contours of trust-corroding commentaries:\u00a0 “Our lives are controlled by plots hatched in secret places. Although we ostensibly live in a democracy, a small group of people run everything, but we don\u2019t know who they are. When big events occur\u2014pandemics, recessions, wars, terrorist attacks\u2014it is because that secretive group is working against the rest of us.”<\/p>\n

As author Rob Brotherton added<\/a>, such a portrayal “assumes nothing is as it seems; it portrays the conspirators as preternaturally competent; and as unusually evil.”<\/p>\n

Who wouldn’t disengage out of fear and disgust with this kind of a conviction?\u00a0\u00a0Brotherson writes about a 1995 Stanford study that found people exposed to especially dark conspiracy theories were less likely to vote in an upcoming election and less likely to volunteer or donate to a political campaign. Simply watching a compelling portrayal of the suspicion “eroded, at least temporarily, a little of the viewer\u2019s sense of civic engagement.”<\/p>\n

2. Does the rhetoric justify ourselves – while demonizing those we disagree with?\u00a0 <\/b>It\u2019s true that we\u2019re more likely to believe conspiracies when we\u2019re scared and feeling helpless \u2013 which makes a time like this especially ripe for such commentary, as many are pointing out.\u00a0 It’s also the case that we\u2019re also much <\/em>more likely to believe them when they paint those we don\u2019t like or disagree with in a bad light (and confirm our own goodness). As one political science professor puts it<\/a>: \u201cTo be believable, [the theory] must affirm the political worldview of a person \u2026You aren\u2019t going to believe in theories that denigrate your own side.\u201d<\/p>\n

That explains why partisan conspiracy theories\u2014deliberately accusing members of one party of conspiring\u2014have higher support than other theories.<\/p>\n

3. Does the specific messaging feel truthful – in terms of the typical ways truth is discerned by Christians?\u00a0 <\/b><\/p>\n

To followers no doubt holding this same question about discerning truth, Jesus Christ famously encouraged them to focus<\/a> on the “fruits” of those sharing the message.\u00a0 Although we often take that to refer to objective and practical consequences of a message (or a messenger), the Apostle Paul elaborated another sense<\/a> of fruit when he taught the Galatians to watch for “love, joy, peace, longsuffering, gentleness, goodness, faith” as a litmus test for the Spirit of God (and truth itself).<\/p>\n

Does a message increase these things in our lives?\u00a0 Or the opposite?<\/p>\n

Even truthful messages can be shared with so much fear or aggression or arrogance, that they lose something of their truth value – coming to function <\/em>in our lives more like untruth.<\/p>\n

Joseph Smith once summarized simply, “truth tastes good.”\u00a0 That doesn’t mean truth must give us “warm fuzzies.”\u00a0 But if it fills us with dread, fear, anger, rage, accusation and hardness…if those\u00a0<\/em>are its fruits, maybe we should pay attention? In that case, whether in the message – or the way the message is being shared – something may be off.<\/p>\n

4. How likely is the commentary pointing towards something that ends up being fully true?\u00a0 <\/b>One thing that should keep us humble is the fact that in many cases, things that seemed outlandish and ridiculous turn out, in the end, to be true. For instance, Douthat reminds readers that rumors about pedophilia among Catholic priests and exploitation among Hollywood producers were largely dismissed as \u201cconspiracy theories\u201d in the past. To that, he suggests: \u201c<\/span>So to worry too much about online paranoia outracing reality is to miss the most important journalistic task, which is the further unraveling of scandals that would have seemed, until now, too implausible to be believed.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s probably something we should all let ourselves do on occasion\u2014think critically about what we\u2019re being told, including by official, trusted sources. We can do that without throwing out our equally essential bonds of trust and confidence as a public together.\u00a0 It\u2019s possible to walk and chew gum at the same time\u2014and it\u2019s possible to nurture trust <\/span>and <\/span><\/i>ask meaningful questions together.<\/span><\/p>\n

5. How much intentionality is presumed to be involved? <\/b>Are people being accused of intentionally <\/i>causing harm\u2014vs. just doing harm by wrong, foolish or short-sighted decisions?<\/p>\n

Douthat goes on to note<\/span><\/a> the tendency of people drawing attention to potential conspiracies to posit \u201cideologically convenient villains and assume the absolute worst about their motives, and to imagine an omnicompetence among the corrupt and conniving that doesn\u2019t actually exist\u201d\u2014while also frequently \u201ctrying to deflect blame for their own failings, by blaming a malign enemy within or an evil-genius rival for problems that their own blunders helped create.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

However much true villains and awful motives clearly exist, the devil is so often in the details\u2014 with a tendency for many people who are angry or scared to insinuate <\/span>conscious <\/span><\/i>malevolence in a place that a soft heart would see ignorance, lack of awareness, or even perhaps honest disagreement.<\/span><\/p>\n

6. How broad is the scope of an accusation? <\/b>Are large swaths of people being accused of dastardly things? (they\u2019re all <\/i>lying. They\u2019re all <\/i>trying to keep us sick. They\u2019re all <\/i>trying to bring down American democracy or economic prosperity . . .<\/p>\n

Although once again, it\u2019s painfully clear throughout history that large swaths of people can be led to do terrible things\u2014<\/span>and <\/span><\/i>that people can very much intentionally cause harm\u2014we can be too quick to paint whole groups of people as <\/span>wanting <\/span><\/i>to cause harm:\u00a0 \u201cthose liberals . . . those Republicans . . . those religious folks . . . those gay activists.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Every time Jacob was told on trips home to Utah during graduate school that \u201cObama is <\/span>trying <\/span><\/i>to hurt America,\u201d he would say something like, \u201cI go to school with many people who think a lot like Obama\u2014and I\u2019ve never met any of them conspiring to overthrow the Republic. Even though I disagree deeply with many of them, they all sincerely believe their policies are what\u2019s best for the country.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

So, in other words\u2014people may be dead wrong, even about really important questions\u2014and hold beliefs with even dangerous consequences.\u00a0 But they <\/span>may not know it!\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

In many cases, things that seemed outlandish and ridiculous turn out, in the end, to be true.<\/p><\/blockquote><\/div>\n

In place of condemnation, this calls for conversation and even <\/span>attempts to persuade<\/span><\/a> or teach each other, in a spirit of respect and love.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

How much less painful this would all be right now in America if we could do just that: giving people the benefit of the doubt. And trusting that everyone (well, <\/span>most <\/span><\/i>everyone\u2014apart from those conscious of causing harm) is doing the best they can.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Is that really so hard?\u00a0 Yes it is\u2014in America today it is.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But what a difference this could make!\u00a0 <\/span>In practice, this would be the difference between saying \u201cMost people in the healthcare system actually <\/span>want <\/span><\/i>people to stay sick, because that will keep their revenue flowing. Professionals know there are better ways, but willfully ignore<\/span>\u2014<\/span>and lie to people about them.\u201d Versus proposing this instead:\u00a0 \u201cHowever much pharmaceutical monies have shaped our healthcare approaches, that is something largely outside the awareness of most medical professionals<\/span>\u2014<\/span>who are doing their best based on what they know, to help relieve suffering and illness.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It takes humility to be self-critical and push ourselves beyond the oversimplified, dopamine-spiking horror stories – in a way that helps us discern the full picture of what’s happening:\u00a0 a picture where those we disagree with might be making major mistakes, but not consciously, and where honest differences in perspectives exist about the best course forward.<\/p>\n

But it would invite a different kind of conversation, a bigger-hearted kind of conversation: with less incentive to write off All Those People as both wicked and intentionally malevolent, and much more space for mutual persuasion, learning and expansion of understanding together.<\/p>\n

It’s in\u00a0that\u00a0<\/em>kind of conversation that surely we have the best chance of discerning the full truth of a matter – including about aspects not fully clear to public view. (As a little training-wheels to a conversation with much bigger doses of generosity, curiosity and openness, we commend Arthur Pe\u00f1a’s delightful conversation guide<\/a> developed for what he calls “Truth Seeking Together” – with one particular guide directing people<\/a> in a small group conversation around the question:\u00a0 “What\u2019s YOUR conspiracy theory? What do you think is ‘really going on’…?”)<\/p>\n

One thing is clear.\u00a0 If we want to know the full truth, a public conversation full of dark suspicion and hot animosity is the last <\/em>place we’re going to find it.\u00a0 That’s why so much depends on continuing to fight for a discourse where space for disagreement continues to coexist with trust, giving the benefit of the doubt, and generosity all around…especially when tricky, sensitive and consequential questions are before us, like “how many people are dying from COVID-19, and what should we do about it?”<\/p>\n

Disagreeing on that question and others like it doesn’t make something ridiculous conspiracy – not unless we insist on injecting dark overtones into every last explanation. It’s possible to disagree deeply – including about life-and-death matters<\/a> – without slicing away the crucial bonds of trust that preserve the precious union of our society.<\/p>\n

We forget that at our peril.<\/p>\n

Photo by bruce mars on Unsplash<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Conspiracy theories can be dangerous and outright false. But they can also sometimes be true (opioid epidemic). 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